智库双螺旋法的“十个关键问题”
“Ten Key Issues” of Think Tank Double Helix Methodology
“Ten Key Issues” of Think Tank Double Helix Methodology
作者
潘教峰1,2(中国科学院科技战略咨询研究院 北京 100190;中国科学院大学 公共政策与管理学院 北京 100049)
鲁晓1(中国科学院科技战略咨询研究院 北京 100190)
刘慧晖1*(中国科学院科技战略咨询研究院 北京 100190)
鲁晓1(中国科学院科技战略咨询研究院 北京 100190)
刘慧晖1*(中国科学院科技战略咨询研究院 北京 100190)
中文关键词
智库;智库双螺旋法;十个关键问题;DIIS过程融合法;MIPS逻辑层次法
英文关键词
think tank;think tank double helix methodology;ten key issues;data-information-intelligence-solution (DIIS);mechanismimpact-policy-solution (MIPS)
中文摘要
随着智库建设的深入推进，智库研究的重要性日益凸显。智库双螺旋法着眼于解决智库研究“怎么做”这一基本问题，为智库研究提供了系统的认知框架和理论方法。文章从智库研究本源出发，围绕智库双螺旋法的“十个关键问题”展开研讨，阐述各关键问题的内涵及意义，梳理针对各关键问题的智库方法研究，并结合智库双螺旋法的理论研究与实践应用提出各关键问题的重点关注内容。“十个关键问题”是智库双螺旋法的又一创新、深化和发展，其解决将为智库双螺旋法提供更加具体的方法集和工具集，使智库研究更加具有操作性、规范性和科学性。
英文摘要
With the deepening of think tank construction, the importance of think tank research has become increasingly prominent. Think tank double helix methodology focuses on solving the problem of "how to do" think tank research, provides a systematic cognitive perspective for think tank research. Starting from the origin of think tank research, this study proposes the "ten key issues" of the think tank double helix methodology. The first key issue is "the decomposition and analysis of think tank problem". This issue is the critical starting point for think tank problem research. The think tank problem is simplified and decomposed into the single-dimensional sub-problem set, and the structured cognitive framework is established, which is linked to the existing knowledge system. The second key issue is "the scenario analysis driven by think tank problem". The various scenarios of the think tank problem that may occur in the future are considered, and the possibility of these scenarios, their impact and consequences are analyzed to help decision makers make reasonable decisions. The third key issue is " the uncertainty analysis of think tank problem research". Through analyzing the uncertainty in policy-making, the risk degree and scope brought by uncertainty, and the results under different risks, the deviation of think tank problem solution is reduced. The fourth key issue is "the policy simulation analysis of think tank problem research". The convergence of economics, sociology, management, public policy, and other multidisciplinary theoretical knowledge is used to model and calculate think tank problem under the support of computer technology, and the past causes and future impacts of policy are analyzed accordingly. The fifth key issue is " the circulative iteration of think tank research". When there are situations such as incomplete cognitive framework, insufficient expert consensus, and deviations between objective analysis and subjective judgment, a new round research needs to be opened. Such a circulative iteration is a process of deepening understanding, continuous convergence, repeatedly evidence-based, and seeking solutions. The sixth key issue is "the coupling relationship between DIIS and MIPS". The two spirals of data-information-intelligence-solution (DIIS) and mechanism-impact-policy-solution (MIPS) are tightly coupled, interlocked, and mutually affected, achieving convergence from relatively decentralized, open, and cross-domain think tank research to practical solutions. The seventh key issue is "the expert organization and management of think tank research". The selection of experts needs to be closely linked to the think tank problem to achieve a match between experts and problem. With the deepening of research, it is necessary to continuously search for and select suitable experts, and dynamically organize a wider range of experts to participate in research. The eighth key issue is " the human-machine combination think tank research support system". The emergence of artificial intelligence scientists and human-machine combination interaction platform systems provide possibilities for human-machine combination think tank research. This will become the trend and direction of think tanks in the future. The ninth key issue is "the combination of objective analysis and subjective judgment". To maintain the independence of think tanks, it is necessary to combine objective analysis and subjective judgment, avoid decision-making deviations on the basis of fully considering objective facts, and prevent intentional subjective intervention on the basis of fully analyzing the demands of relevant stakeholders. The tenth key issue is "the think tank product quality management". The quality of think tank products represents the core competitiveness of the think tank. Think tank double helix methodology can provide a basis for the quality control of the whole think tank research process. "Ten key issues" is another innovation, deepening, and development of think tank double helix methodology. Solving "ten key issues" will provide more specific method and tool set for think tank double helix methodology, and make think tank research more operational, formalization, and scientific.
DOI10.16418/j.issn.1000-3045.20211116003
作者简介
潘教峰 中国科学院科技战略咨询研究院院长、研究员、博士生导师,国务院研究室-中国科学院共建的中国创新战略和政策研究中心共同主任。中国发展战略学研究会理事长,中国科学技术法学会副会长,中国科技评估与成果管理研究会副理事长,全国科技评估标准化技术委员会副主任委员。全国政协参政议政人才库特聘专家,国家"有突出贡献中青年专家"。主要从事科技战略规划、创新政策和智库理论方法研究。原创性提出智库研究基本逻辑体系和双螺旋法。主持过 60余项国家级决策咨询、规划、政策和战略研究课题,取得了一批有影响的重大决策咨询成果和理论成果。主笔的研究报告、政策建议和学术文章200余篇,合著和主编专著10余部。
E-mail:jfpan@casisd.cn
PAN Jiaofeng Professor, Doctorial Supervisor, President of the Institutes of Science and Development, Chinese Academy of Sciences (CASISD), Co-director of China Innovation Strategy and Policy Research Center funded by Research Office of the State Council and CAS, Chairman of the Chinese Association of Development Strategy Studies, Vice President of China Law Association on Science and Technology, Vice Chairman of China Association of Scientific and Technological Achievements Management, Vice Chair of National Technical Committee on Science and Technology Evaluation of Standardization Administration of China. He is one of the specially-appointed experts of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference. He was awarded the honorary title of "Young and Middle-aged Experts with Outstanding Contributions". His research focuses on S&T strategic planning, innovation policy, think-tank theory and method research. He originally proposes the Basic Logical System of Think Tank Research, and Double Helix Methodology of Think Tank Research. He has presided more than 60 major decision-making advising research projects, and has achieved a batch of influential outcomes in terms of major decision-making consultations and research theory. He has leading authored research reports and policy recommendations, and has published academic articles for more than 200, as well as more than 10 coauthored or chief edited monographs.
E-mail:jfpan@casisd.cn
刘慧晖 中国科学院科技战略咨询研究院助理研究员。研究方向为决策理论与方法、科技伦理、智库理论与方法。研究成果发表于European Journal of Operational Research、International Journal of Intelligent Systems、《系统工程理论与实践》、《控制与决策》等国内外期刊。
E-mail:liuhuihui@casisd.cn
LIU Huihui Assistant Professor of the Institutes of Science and Development, Chinese Academy of Sciences. Her research interests are around decision making methodology, science and technology ethics, think tank methodology. She has published a couple of articles in core journals at home and abroad, including European Journal of Operational Research, International Journal of Intelligent Systems, System Engineering Theory and Practice, Control and Decision, etc.
E-mail:liuhuihui@casisd.cn
E-mail:jfpan@casisd.cn
PAN Jiaofeng Professor, Doctorial Supervisor, President of the Institutes of Science and Development, Chinese Academy of Sciences (CASISD), Co-director of China Innovation Strategy and Policy Research Center funded by Research Office of the State Council and CAS, Chairman of the Chinese Association of Development Strategy Studies, Vice President of China Law Association on Science and Technology, Vice Chairman of China Association of Scientific and Technological Achievements Management, Vice Chair of National Technical Committee on Science and Technology Evaluation of Standardization Administration of China. He is one of the specially-appointed experts of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference. He was awarded the honorary title of "Young and Middle-aged Experts with Outstanding Contributions". His research focuses on S&T strategic planning, innovation policy, think-tank theory and method research. He originally proposes the Basic Logical System of Think Tank Research, and Double Helix Methodology of Think Tank Research. He has presided more than 60 major decision-making advising research projects, and has achieved a batch of influential outcomes in terms of major decision-making consultations and research theory. He has leading authored research reports and policy recommendations, and has published academic articles for more than 200, as well as more than 10 coauthored or chief edited monographs.
E-mail:jfpan@casisd.cn
刘慧晖 中国科学院科技战略咨询研究院助理研究员。研究方向为决策理论与方法、科技伦理、智库理论与方法。研究成果发表于European Journal of Operational Research、International Journal of Intelligent Systems、《系统工程理论与实践》、《控制与决策》等国内外期刊。
E-mail:liuhuihui@casisd.cn
LIU Huihui Assistant Professor of the Institutes of Science and Development, Chinese Academy of Sciences. Her research interests are around decision making methodology, science and technology ethics, think tank methodology. She has published a couple of articles in core journals at home and abroad, including European Journal of Operational Research, International Journal of Intelligent Systems, System Engineering Theory and Practice, Control and Decision, etc.
E-mail:liuhuihui@casisd.cn
