碳中和目标下我国能源发展战略探讨

Research on China's Energy Development Strategy under Carbon Neutrality

        苏健^1,2(中国石油大学(华东) 经济管理学院 青岛 266580;中国石油勘探开发研究院 北京 100083)
        梁英波²(中国石油勘探开发研究院 北京 100083)
        丁麟²(中国石油勘探开发研究院 北京 100083)
        张国生²(中国石油勘探开发研究院 北京 100083)
        刘合^1,2*(中国石油大学(华东) 经济管理学院 青岛 266580;1 中国石油大学(华东) 经济管理学院 青岛 266580)

         碳达峰;碳中和;碳减排;能源消费结构;趋势预测;战略路径

        carbon peak;carbon neutrality;carbon emission reduction;energy consumption structure;trend prediction;strategic path

        2020年国家主席习近平在第75届联合国大会一般性辩论上作出了力争2030年前实现碳达峰、2060年前实现碳中和的承诺。作为世界最大的能源消费国和碳排放国，实现碳中和目标对我国能源和经济可持续发展提出了更高要求。近年来，虽然我国能源消费增速放缓，碳排放逐渐进入平台期，但我国能源消费结构中化石能源占比仍高达80%以上。碳中和目标下，在借鉴发达国家调整能源消费结构与碳减排做法的基础上，如何加快我国能源转型，明确碳中和目标下能源转型的战略路径值得深入探讨。碳中和是我国经济社会发展的战略目标，也是推进我国能源革命的重要举措，更是实现文明跨越的重要抓手。在实现碳中和的道路上，我国需要在电力、工业、建筑、农业等领域不断努力，减少碳排放量，谋划最优的战略路径，努力实现碳减排和经济发展并行不悖。

        China has pledged to reach peak carbon dioxide emission by 2030, and carbon neutrality by 2060 at the Seventy-Fifth Session of the United Nations General Assembly in 2020. As the largest energy consumer and emitter of greenhouse gases, carbon peak and carbon neutrality targets have posed a high requirement for China's sustainable development of energy and economy. In recent years, even though the growth rate of China's energy consumption has decreased, and carbon dioxide emissions gradually enter the plateau, fossil fuels still supply more than 80% of the energy consumption in China. Besides learning from the adjustment of energy consumption structure in developed countries, it is worth discussing in-depth about the change of the strategic path of energy transition and how to advance energy transition under carbon peak and carbon neutrality targets, the strategic goals in China's economic and social developments. It is also an important action in China's energy revolution. Furthermore, it is an important step to achieve the development of civilization. China needs to keep working on how to reduce carbon emission, to find the optimal strategic path, and to reach the equilibrium between carbon dioxide emission reduction and economic development in the fields of electrical engineering, industry, civil engineering, and agriculture along the path towards carbon neutrality.