“一带一路”关键节点区域极端气候风险评价及应对策略

Risk Assessment and Response Strategies for Extreme Climate Events in Key Nodes of the Belt and Road

        葛咏(中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所 北京 100101)
        李强子(中国科学院空天信息创新研究院 北京 100094)
        凌峰(中国科学院精密测量科学与技术创新研究院 武汉 430071)
        张源(中国科学院空天信息创新研究院 北京 100094)
        姚永慧(中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所 北京 100101)
        刘庆生(中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所 北京 100101)
        董文(中国科学院空天信息创新研究院 北京 100094)
        吴骅(中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所 北京 100101)
        李毅(中国科学院空天信息创新研究院 北京 100094)
        任周鹏(中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所 北京 100101)

         风险评估;精细尺度;极端气候风险;“一带一路”;关键节点

        risk assessment;fine-scale;extreme climate risk;Belt and Road;key nodes

        在全球气候变化的大情景下，高温热浪、极端降水、极端干旱和风暴潮事件在“一带一路”沿线大部分区域均呈增强趋势，严重威胁“一带一路”沿线国家的人身和财产安全。文章针对“一带一路”沿线区域极端气候事件风险识别与评价工作中存在的评估尺度粗且单一、应对策略薄弱等问题，围绕极端干旱、极端降水、高温热浪、风暴潮4类代表性极端气候事件，建立了多尺度极端气候风险评估技术体系，完成了千米、百米和十米尺度的风险评估工作，实现了对“一带一路”沿线区域4类极端气候风险的空间分布、发展趋势、主要影响因素的把握，为更合理、有效地应对灾害，减少和转移灾害风险，减少人身和财产损失等提供科学支撑。

        In the context of global climate change, heat waves, extreme precipitation, extreme droughts and storm surges have increased in most areas of the Belt and Road, which seriously threatens the personal and property safety of countries along the Belt and Road. This study focuses on dealing with the issues associated with the risk identification and assessment of extreme climate events in the “Belt and Road” region, including the coarse or single assessment scale and weak response strategies. It develops a multi-scale extreme climate risk assessment framework, and completes the risk assessment of four representative extreme climate events including heat waves, extreme precipitation, extreme droughts, and storm surges at three scales of 1 km, 100 m, and 10 m. The risk assessment results reveal the spatial distribution, temporal dynamics, and major influencing factors of the 4 types of extreme climate risks in the Belt and Road region. The better understanding of these can provide scientific support for more reasonable and effective response to disasters, reduction and transfer of risks, and reduction of personal and property losses.