2021年中国进出口形势分析与预测
Forecasting China's Foreign Trade for 2021
Forecasting China's Foreign Trade for 2021
作者
魏云捷(中国科学院预测科学研究中心 北京 100190;中国科学院数学与系统科学研究院 北京 100190)
张珣(中国科学院预测科学研究中心 北京 100190;中国科学院数学与系统科学研究院 北京 100190)
孙玉莹(中国科学院预测科学研究中心 北京 100190;中国科学院数学与系统科学研究院 北京 100190)
白云(中国科学院数学与系统科学研究院 北京 100190;中国科学院大学 经济与管理学院 北京 100190)
汪寿阳(中国科学院预测科学研究中心 北京 100190;中国科学院数学与系统科学研究院 北京 100190;中国科学院大学 经济与管理学院 北京 100190)
张珣(中国科学院预测科学研究中心 北京 100190;中国科学院数学与系统科学研究院 北京 100190)
孙玉莹(中国科学院预测科学研究中心 北京 100190;中国科学院数学与系统科学研究院 北京 100190)
白云(中国科学院数学与系统科学研究院 北京 100190;中国科学院大学 经济与管理学院 北京 100190)
汪寿阳(中国科学院预测科学研究中心 北京 100190;中国科学院数学与系统科学研究院 北京 100190;中国科学院大学 经济与管理学院 北京 100190)
中文关键词
进出口;预测;系统集成;经贸摩擦
英文关键词
import and export;forecast;system analysis;trade frictions
中文摘要
文章首先分析了2020年1—11月中国进出口的发展态势；其次基于中国经济增长、国际需求、中美经贸摩擦和国际疫情状况4个方面构建了3种预测情景；最后在3种情景下，基于计量经济模型、人工智能方法和系统分析方法，提出了分解集成预测模型体系，预测了中国2021年进出口增长趋势。在全球疫情得到一定的控制、世界经济缓慢复苏、中国经济稳定增长的基准情景下，预计2021年中国进出口总额约为4.9万亿美元，同比增长约5.7%；其中，出口总额约为2.7万亿美元，同比增长约6.2%，进口总额约为2.2万亿美元，同比增长约4.9%；贸易顺差约为5 766亿美元。在乐观情景下，2021年中国出口和进口增速较基准情景分别上升3.0和3.3个百分点；在悲观情景下，2021年中国出口和进口增速较基准情景分别下降2.9和3.2个百分点。
英文摘要
This study analyzes the situation of China's foreign trade from January to November in 2020, and then three forecasting scenarios are constructed based on four aspects, including China's economic growth, the international demand, Sino-US trade friction, and the development of the COVID-19. Under these scenarios, a new decomposition and composition methodology is proposed to forecast 2021 China's foreign trade, by integrating the econometric models, artificial intelligence methods, and the system analysis method. In 2021, under the baseline scenario that the COVID-19 pandemic will be under certain control, the global economy exhibits slow recovery and China's economy grows steadily, the total exports and imports in 2021 are expected to be around 4.9 trillion US dollars with a 5.7 percent growth rate year-on-year. Exports are expected to be around 2.7 trillion US dollars with a 6.2 percent growth rate year-on-year, and imports are expected to be around 2.2 trillion US dollars with a 4.9 percent year-on-year growth rate. The trade surplus is about 576.6 billion US dollars. Under optimistic scenario in 2021, China's export and import growth rates are expected to increase by 3.0 and 3.3 percentage points relative to the baseline scenario, respectively. Under pessimistic scenario in 2021, China's export and import growth rates are expected to decrease by 2.9 and 3.2 percentage points relative to the baseline scenario, respectively.
DOI10.16418/j.issn.1000-3045.20210105002
作者简介
魏云捷 中国科学院预测科学研究中心助理研究员。研究方向：经济预测理论与方法、经济政策分析、国际贸易。主持国家自然科学基金青年科学基金项目 1项和商务部重点研究项目 1项。在重要学术期刊上发表论文 30篇，其中 12篇在国际重要期刊上发表。
E-mail:weiyunjie@amss.ac.cn
WEI Yunjie Received her Ph.D. degree in Management Science and Engineering at University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, China in 2017, and also received a Ph.D. degree in Management Science at City University of Hong Kong in 2018. She is currently an assistant professor at Academy of Mathematics and Systems Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences. Her research interests include economic modeling, analysis, and forecasting.
E-mail:weiyunjie@amss.ac.cn.
汪寿阳 发展中国家科学院院士，国际系统与控制科学院院士。中国科学院预测科学研究中心主任，中国科学院大学经济与管理学院院长，中国科学院特聘研究员。研究领域包括经济分析与预测、风险管理、系统工程。出版学术专著 40部，在国际重要期刊上发表论文 380余篇。
E-mail:sywang@amss.ac.cn
WANG Shouyang Director of Center for Forecasting Science of Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS), and the dean of School of Economics and Management, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences. He was the President of the International Society of Knowledge and Systems Sciences, and the President of the China Society of Systems Engineering. He is a fellow of the World Academy of Sciences for the advancement of science in developing countries, an academician of International Academy of Systems and Cybernetics Sciences. His research interests include decision analysis, risk management, economic analysis and forecasting. He has published 40 monographs and more than 380 papers in leading journals.
E-mail:sywang@amss.ac.cn
E-mail:weiyunjie@amss.ac.cn
WEI Yunjie Received her Ph.D. degree in Management Science and Engineering at University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, China in 2017, and also received a Ph.D. degree in Management Science at City University of Hong Kong in 2018. She is currently an assistant professor at Academy of Mathematics and Systems Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences. Her research interests include economic modeling, analysis, and forecasting.
E-mail:weiyunjie@amss.ac.cn.
汪寿阳 发展中国家科学院院士，国际系统与控制科学院院士。中国科学院预测科学研究中心主任，中国科学院大学经济与管理学院院长，中国科学院特聘研究员。研究领域包括经济分析与预测、风险管理、系统工程。出版学术专著 40部，在国际重要期刊上发表论文 380余篇。
E-mail:sywang@amss.ac.cn
WANG Shouyang Director of Center for Forecasting Science of Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS), and the dean of School of Economics and Management, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences. He was the President of the International Society of Knowledge and Systems Sciences, and the President of the China Society of Systems Engineering. He is a fellow of the World Academy of Sciences for the advancement of science in developing countries, an academician of International Academy of Systems and Cybernetics Sciences. His research interests include decision analysis, risk management, economic analysis and forecasting. He has published 40 monographs and more than 380 papers in leading journals.
E-mail:sywang@amss.ac.cn
