2021年中国经济增长速度的预测分析与政策建议

Forecast of China's Economic Growth Rate in 2021 and Policy Suggestions
作者
        陈锡康(中国科学院预测科学研究中心 北京 100190;中国科学院数学与系统科学研究院 北京 100190)
        杨翠红(中国科学院预测科学研究中心 北京 100190;中国科学院数学与系统科学研究院 北京 100190;中国科学院大学 经济与管理学院 北京 100190)
        祝坤福(中国人民大学 经济学院 北京 100872)
        王会娟(中央财经大学 统计与数学学院 北京 100081)
        李鑫茹(首都经济贸易大学 经济学院 北京 100070)
        姜青言(中国科学院预测科学研究中心 北京 100190;中国科学院数学与系统科学研究院 北京 100190;中国科学院大学 经济与管理学院 北京 100190)
中文关键词
         经济预测;经济形势分析;国内生产总值;政策建议
英文关键词
        economic forecast;economic situation analysis;Gross Domestic Product (GDP);policy sugg
中文摘要
        2021年中国面临着新冠肺炎疫情和复杂国际形势的共同影响,未来经济发展方向备受关注。文章依据经济理论、现实经验、生产要素变化等,系统分析和预测了中国中长期经济增长速度的变动趋势为呈波浪形下降。基于投入产出技术、计量经济学、景气分析法、专家分析法、情景分析等,提出了年度GDP增速预测的系统综合因素预测法。在对2020年中国全年经济发展进行简要回顾的基础上,根据目前国内、国际形势对2021年中国经济增长速度做出了预测:预计2021年中国经济将实现恢复性增长,全年增速为8.5%左右。文章进而基于经济形势分析提出了促进中国经济发展的相关政策建议:继续促进消费,稳增长、促发展,建设科技创新型国家,加快产业结构转型升级。
英文摘要
        Under the joint impact of the COVID-19 epidemic and the complex international situation, the future direction of China's economic development has attracted much attention. This study systematically analyzes and forecasts the development trend and regularity of China's medium and long-term economic growth rate. It is expected that the medium and long-term economic growth rate of China will show a downward trend in a wave shape. Based on the systematic integrated prediction approach on annual GDP growth proposed by our team, this study reviews China's economic development in 2020 and forecasts China's economic growth rate in 2021. It is expected that China's economy will achieve a restorative growth with an annual growth rate of about 8.5% in 2021. The policy suggestions are further proposed based on the analysis, including promoting domestic consumption, stabilizing economic growth and development, building a science and technology innovation-oriented country, as well as accelerating the transformation of industrial structure.
DOI10.16418/j.issn.1000-3045.20210106002
作者简介
陈锡康 中国科学院数学与系统科学研究院研究员,中国科学院预测科学研究中心研究员。国际投入产出协会会士,中国投入产出学会名誉理事长。我国投入产出技术早期开拓者之一,国际投入产出协会创建人之一并任三届理事。率先在国际上提出和创立了投入占用产出技术,得到包括投入产出分析的创始人、诺贝尔奖获得者列昂惕夫教授等国际著名科学家的好评;率先提出农作物产量的系统综合因素预测法,连续40年成功应用于年度全国粮食产量预测中,预测提前期为半年以上,提前期长;预测精度高, 40年平均预测误差为抽样实割实测产量的1.8%。研究领域:经济预测、宏观经济与产业经济、数量经济模型。
E-mail:xkchen@iss.ac.cn
CHEN Xikang Professor of Academy of Mathematics and Systems Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS), Center for Forecasting Science, CAS. He is a fellow of International Input-Output Association and the honorable president of Chinese InputOutput Association. He is one of the pioneers in China on input-output research. He is one of the founders of International Input-Output Association and was its council members for three terms. He put forward the input-occupancy-output technique (IOO). IOO was highly praised by international renown scientists including Wassily W. Leontief, the Nobel Laureate and the founder of input-output analysis. Chen Xikang proposed new method of grain output prediction-Systematic Integrated Prediction Approach (SIPA). This method has been successfully used in China since 1980. The lead time of the prediction is more than half a year and average error rate over 40 years is 1.8%. His research interest includes economic forecasting, macroeconomics and quantitative economics.
E-mail:xkchen@iss.ac.cn
杨翠红 中国科学院数学与系统科学研究院研究员,中国科学院预测科学研究中心研究员,中国科学院大学经济与管理学院岗位教授,中国科学院管理、决策与信息系统重点实验室主任。中国投入产出学会常务副理事长。曾任国际投入产出协会副理事长。主要研究领域:投入产出技术与经济预测、全球价值链与贸易利益研究、宏观经济分析与政策。
E-mail:chyang@iss.ac.cn
YANG Cuihong Professor of Academy of Mathematics and Systems Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS), Center for Forecasting Science, CAS, as well as Professor of School of Economics and Management, University of CAS. She is currently the Director of the Key Laboratory of Management, Decision and Information Systems of CAS and the executive vice president of the Chinese Input-Output Association, and seved as vice-president of International Input-Output Association (2013–2018). Her main research areas are input-output technique and economic forecasting, global value chain, macroeconomy analysis, and policy research.
E-mail:chyang@iss.ac.cn
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