新冠肺炎疫情对中国经济的影响分析与对策建议
Impacts of COVID-19 Outbreak on China’s Economy and Policy Suggestions
Impacts of COVID-19 Outbreak on China’s Economy and Policy Suggestions
作者
陈锡康 杨翠红 鲍勤 祝坤福 王会娟 姜青言 汪寿阳
中文关键词
新冠肺炎，疫情，经济影响，国内生产总值，政策建议
英文关键词
COVID-19, epidemic, economic impacts, Gross Domestic Product(GDP), policy suggestions
中文摘要
新冠肺炎疫情的发生和快速蔓延对我国经济和社会的各方面均产生了重要的影响。文章系统地分析了疫情短期内对我国三次产业特别是交通运输、住宿餐饮等行业的影响，并从需求端阐述了疫情短期内对消费、投资和进出口的冲击。在对疫情发展形势进行预判的基础上，按基准情景和悲观情景分别测算了此次疫情对 2020 年我国经济增长速度的影响，并提出相关政策建议：应科学开展疫情影响评估、系统梳理风险、积极统筹协调各项政策，从而更好地舒缓疫情带来的冲击。
英文摘要
The outbreak of COVID-19 has brought significant impacts on China’s economy and society. This study systematically analyzes the impacts of COVID-19 outbreak on China’s industries, especially industries of transport, storage and post, hotels and catering services. On the demand side, the COVID-19 outbreak hurt China’s consumption, investment and international trade. Based on the forecasting of the virus infection, this study estimates the growth rate of China’s gross domestic production in 2020 based on the basic scenario and the pessimistic scenario. The policy suggestions are further proposed to better coping with the COVID-19 shock, including making scientific evaluations of the impacts, systematically arranging related risk, actively coordinating various policies.
作者简介
陈锡康
中国科学院数学与系统科学研究院研究员，国际投入产出协会会士，中国投入产出学会名誉理事长。研究领域：经济预测、宏观经济与产业经济、数量经济模型。
E-mail: xkchen@iss.ac.cn
CHEN Xikang
Professor of Academy of Mathematics and Systems Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS). He is a fellow of International Association of Input-Output Analysis and the honorable president of China Association of Input-Output Analysis. His research interest includes Economic forecasting, Macroeconomics and quantitative economics.
E-mail: xkchen@iss.ac.cn
汪寿阳
中国科学院预测科学研究中心主任、研究员。发展中国家科学院院士，国际系统与控制科学院院士。兼任中国科学院大学经济与管理学院院长，多种国内外学术期刊的主编、领域主编，以及《中国科学院院刊》编委。研究领域：经济分析与预测、政策模拟与仿真、系统工程。
E-mail: sywang@amss.ac.cn
WANG Shouyang
Founding Director and Professor of Center for Forecasting Science， Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS). He is a TWAS fellow and an academician of the International Academy of Systems and Cybernetics Sciences. He is currently the dean of School of Economics and Management, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences and the editor-in-chief or a department editor of several journals and an editorial board member of Bulletin of Chinese Academy of Sciences. His research interest includes economic analysis and forecasting, policy modelling and simulation, and systems engineering.
E-mail: sywang@amss.ac.cn
中国科学院数学与系统科学研究院研究员，国际投入产出协会会士，中国投入产出学会名誉理事长。研究领域：经济预测、宏观经济与产业经济、数量经济模型。
E-mail: xkchen@iss.ac.cn
CHEN Xikang
Professor of Academy of Mathematics and Systems Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS). He is a fellow of International Association of Input-Output Analysis and the honorable president of China Association of Input-Output Analysis. His research interest includes Economic forecasting, Macroeconomics and quantitative economics.
E-mail: xkchen@iss.ac.cn
汪寿阳
中国科学院预测科学研究中心主任、研究员。发展中国家科学院院士，国际系统与控制科学院院士。兼任中国科学院大学经济与管理学院院长，多种国内外学术期刊的主编、领域主编，以及《中国科学院院刊》编委。研究领域：经济分析与预测、政策模拟与仿真、系统工程。
E-mail: sywang@amss.ac.cn
WANG Shouyang
Founding Director and Professor of Center for Forecasting Science， Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS). He is a TWAS fellow and an academician of the International Academy of Systems and Cybernetics Sciences. He is currently the dean of School of Economics and Management, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences and the editor-in-chief or a department editor of several journals and an editorial board member of Bulletin of Chinese Academy of Sciences. His research interest includes economic analysis and forecasting, policy modelling and simulation, and systems engineering.
E-mail: sywang@amss.ac.cn
