中国31个直辖市和省会城市“垃圾围城”风险与对策研究―基于DⅡS方法的实证研究

Research on Risks and Countermeasures of “Cities Besieged by Waste” in China—An Empirical Analysis Based on DⅡS

        陈安(中国科学院科技战略咨询研究院 北京 100190;中国科学院大学 北京 100049)
        陈晶睿(中国科学院科技战略咨询研究院 北京 100190;中国科学院大学 北京 100049)
        崔晶(中国科学院大学 北京 100049;中国科学院大学 中丹学院 北京 100049)
        范超(河南理工大学 应急管理学院 焦作 454000)
        韩玮(中国科学院科技战略咨询研究院 北京 100190;中国科学院大学 北京 100049)

         垃圾围城;垃圾治理;垃圾存量;非正规垃圾填埋场

        Cities Besieged by Waste;garbage disposal;volume of waste;informal landfill

        如今高速发展的中国城市正饱受"垃圾围城"之痛。"人生活在城市里，城市受困于垃圾中"已是当前的真实写照。"十二五"以来，地方政府虽然出台了相关政策，但是面对城市人口不断积聚的现状，我国仍面临垃圾难排、难运、难处理、难管理的窘境，"垃圾围城"的悲剧仍在上演。"垃圾围城"的风险不容忽视，因此"垃圾围城"现状和对策的研究必须被重点关注。文章基于"收集信息-揭示信息-综合研判-形成方案"（Data-Information-Intelligence-Solution，DⅡS）分析框架，运用"谷歌地球"（Google Earth，GE）及地理信息系统（Geographic Information System，GIS）软件识别31个直辖市和省会城市非正规垃圾填埋场的个数、面积及形成情况，以得出"垃圾存量"数据。进而，基于"驱动力-状态-响应"（Driving Force-Status-Response，DSR）风险评价模型识别31个省会城市的"垃圾围城"风险，通过分析现状、识别风险源、理清风险的发生发展机制，进而为规避垃圾围城风险进行管理机制设计，以期为政府部门降低城市"垃圾围城"风险献力。

        Nowadays, China's fast-growing cities are suffering from the problem of "Cities Besieged by Waste". The true portrayal of China today is people live in cities, while the cities are trapped in waste. China is still in this dilemma that a lot of garbage is difficult to memorial archway, clear, dispose, and manage, although local governments have promulgated corresponding policies in recent years. Tragedies caused by "Cities Besieged by Waste" are still everywhere. The risk situation and countermeasures of "Cities Besieged by Waste" should not be ignored, but should be focused on instead. Based on the DⅡS (Data-Information-Intelligence-Solution) framework, this study uses Google Earth and GIS (Geographic Information System) to identify the number, area, and formation of informal landfills in 31 provincial capitals to finally generate the data of the "garbage stock". Besides, based on the DSR (Driving force-Status-Response) risk assessment model, this study identifies the risk of "Cities Besieged by Waste" of 31 provincial capitals. By analyzing the current situation of risk, identifying the source of risk, and clarifying the mechanism of risk occurrence and development, this study works on providing intellectual contribution for government departments to reduce the risk of "Cities Besieged by Waste".