“丝绸之路经济带”中亚天然气资源开发利用对中国的保障效益及对策建议

Guarantee Level of Natural Gas Exploitation and Utilization in Central Asia of Silk Road Economic Belt for China and Corresponding Countermeasures

        鲍超(中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所 北京 100101;中国科学院大学 资源与环境学院 北京 100049)
        王红杰(中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所 北京 100101;中国科学院大学 资源与环境学院 北京 100049)

         天然气;地缘配置;合作开发;保障程度;能源安全;中亚

        natural gas;geo-configuration;cooperation and development;guarantee level;energy security;Central Asia

        中亚地区天然气资源丰富，而且中亚各国大力开发天然气资源，不断提高生产量及出口量，致力实现出口多元化，因而成为世界各大国及各大力量争夺关注的焦点。而我国由于人口众多且消费巨大，天然气资源严重依赖进口，对外依存度逐年攀升。目前中亚地区占我国天然气进口市场的份额在50%左右，未来虽然该比重会有所下降，但进口总量会稳步增加，因此中亚天然气仍然在我国天然气保障格局中具有举足轻重的战略地位。中亚天然气资源具有比较优势高、安全性和稳定性好等优点，但我国与中亚天然气资源的合作开发也会受到政治、经济、文化等外部因素的扰动。为此，从保障国家能源安全的角度出发，详细分析了中亚天然气资源的地缘配置格局及对我国天然气安全的保障程度与保障效益，分析了外部扰动因素对中亚天然气资源开发的影响和对中国能源安全的保障风险，并有针对性地提出了当前我国与中亚天然气资源合作开发亟待采取的对策建议：（1）建立副总理级的天然气合作开发协调委员会；（2）制定并完善与中亚五国的天然气双边贸易协定；（3）继续扩大中亚—中国天然气管道输气能力；（4）优选我国与中亚天然气合作开发模式；（5）建立中国-中亚天然气交易中心。

        Central Asia has abundant natural gas resources. Every country continues to improve the natural gas production and export volume, and strives to achieve diversification of exports. Accordingly, Central Asia has become the focus of all the great powers in the world. As for China, the natural gas resource is heavily dependent on imports. The dependence on foreign trade is increasing year by year due to large population and huge consumption. At present, the five Central Asian countries account for about 50% of China's natural gas import market. Although the proportion may decline in the future, the total amount will increase steadily. Central Asia will still occupy an important strategic position in the natural gas security pattern of China. The natural gas resources in Central Asia have high comparative advantages, as well as security and stability. Nevertheless, the cooperation of natural gas development between China and Central Asia may be disturbed by political, economic, and cultural factors. Therefore, from the pointview of ensuring national energy security, this paper analyzes the geo-configuration pattern of natural gas resources in Central Asia, as well as the guarantee level of natural gas security for China. Meanwhile, the impact of external disturbances on the natural gas resources development in Central Asia and the risk for China's energy security are also analyzed. Finally, countermeasures and suggestions are put forward for the cooperation of natural gas resources development between China and Central Asia:(1) establish a coordinating committee for cooperation of natural gas development at the vice premier level; (2) develop and improve bilateral trade agreements with five Central Asian countries; (3) continue to expand the natural gas pipeline capacity between Central Asia and China; (4) optimize the cooperation mode between China and Central Asia; (5) establish a natural gas trading center for China and Central Asia.