中国如何成为世界科技创新强国(2015-2050)
How Does China Become World Sci-tech Innovation Power (2015-2050)
How Does China Become World Sci-tech Innovation Power (2015-2050)
作者
胡鞍钢(清华大学公共管理学院 北京 100084;清华大学国情研究院 北京 100084)
刘生龙(清华大学公共管理学院 北京 100084;清华大学国情研究院 北京 100084;中国社会科学院数量经济研究所 北京 100732)
任皓(清华大学公共管理学院 北京 100084;清华大学国情研究院 北京 100084)
刘生龙(清华大学公共管理学院 北京 100084;清华大学国情研究院 北京 100084;中国社会科学院数量经济研究所 北京 100732)
任皓(清华大学公共管理学院 北京 100084;清华大学国情研究院 北京 100084)
中文关键词
中国社会主义现代化;世界科技创新强国;世界制造强国;三位一体
英文关键词
China's socialism modernization;world sci-tech innovation power;world manufacturing power;three in one strategy
中文摘要
建设世界科技创新强国是我国社会主义现代化建设的重要组成部分，文章从2050年中国现代化目标、世界科技创新强国目标和制造强国目标出发，通过全球增长模型，对我国2015-2050年发展状况进行长期预测，包括GDP、人均GDP、固定资本存量、研发资本存量、人力资本存量、劳动生产率、制造业增加值、高技术产业增加值等数据及其与美国的比值，表明2050年我国在完成建设社会主义现代化国家目标的同时，还可完成世界科技创新强国与世界制造强国建设。文章还从经济强国、制造强国与科技强国三者的相互关系出发，提出“三位一体”的强国方略集，认为只有经济、产业、科技三大体系融为一体，才能形成相互需求、相互借力、相互支撑、相互带动的良性循环，并在此基础上提出世界科技创新强国建设的三阶段。
英文摘要
May 30, 2016, on the "Sci-tech Three Conferences" (National Conference on Science and Technology Innovation, the Conference of the Academicians, and the 9th National Congress of China Association for Science and Technology), President Xi Jinping first suggested that our targets for national sci-tech development is that by the time when the People's Republic of China has been established for 100 years, China shall become a world sci-tech innovation power, which is also an important constitution of China's socialist modernization. Starting from China's Modernization Goals by 2050, and the goals of becoming a world sci-tech innovation power and a manufacturing power, by means of analyzing global growth model, this study predicts the long term development from 2015 and 2050, including indexes such as national GDP, GDP per capita, fixed capital stocks, R&D capital stocks, human capital stocks, labor productivity, manufactory industry added-value, and high-tech industry added-value, and compares them with those of the United States as well. Conclusion shows that by 2050 when China has finished the socialist modernization, China will also emerge as a world sci-tech innovation power and world manufactory power. From the perspectives of interrelations among economic power, manufactory power, and sci-tech power, we propose a three in one strategy for strengthening the country, argue that only the integration of economy, industry, and science and technology could contribute a benign cycle of mutual demands, mutual engines, mutual supports, and mutual promotions among them, based on which this articles also anticipates three stages for China becoming a world sci-tech power.
DOI10.16418/j.issn.1000-3045.2017.05.005
作者简介
胡鞍钢,清华大学公共管理学院教授、博士生导师,清华大学国情研究院院长。1953年出生,辽宁鞍山人,1988年获中科院工学博士学位。中共"十八大"代表,"十一五""十二五""十三五"规划专家委员会委员,农业部专家委员会委员,中国经济50人论坛成员。出版各类著作80余部,近期著作有《中国新理念:五大发展》《中国:决胜百年目标》《"十三五"大战略》《超级中国》《民主决策——中国集体领导制》《中国特色新型智库——胡鞍钢的观点》《2020中国:全面建成小康社会》《2030中国:迈向共同富裕》《中国:创新绿色发展》等。曾获国家科技进步奖三等奖、国家杰出青年科学基金、中科院科技进步奖一等奖、复旦管理学杰出贡献奖等奖励。E-mail:anganghu@mail.tsinghua.edu.cn
Hu Angang Born in 1953.He is one of the pioneers and leading authorities in the realm of contemporary China studies.He now serves as the Dean of the Institute of Contemporary China Studies of Tsinghua University and Professor of School of Public Policy&Management of Tsinghua University.He is also a member of the Advisory Committee for the Thirteenth and Twelfth Five-Year Plans under NDRC,a member of the Advisory Committee of the National Disaster Mitigation Committee,and a member of the Advisory Committee under Ministry of Agriculture.He was elected as the representative of the 18th CCP National Congress in 2012.Hu spent his early year in the rural area as educated youth.He started his studying after the resume of College Entrance Examination in 1977.Hu earned his Ph.D.degree in Chinese Academy of Science in 1988.He conducted his postdoctoral research at Yale University.He was a visiting scholar in Harvard University,Oxford University,Waseda University,and World Bank Institute.Hu has published about 70 books.His latest works are the Grand Strategy of China's 13th Five-Year Program (2015),Super China (2015),New Think Tank with Chinese Characteristics:Hu Angang's Views (2014),Collective Presidency in China (2013),China:Innovative Green Development(2012),and 2030 China:Towards Common Affluence (2011).Hu is awarded the Youth Entrust of National Natural Science Foundation of China (NSFC),Fudan Premium Fund of Management,Third Prize of the State Science and Technology Progress Awards,and the First Prize of Science and Technology Progress Awards of the Chinese Academy of Sciences.E-mail:anganghu@mail.tsinghua.edu.cn
任皓,男,1991年出生,清华大学公共管理学院博士研究生。研究方向为中国经济发展与结构转型。E-mail:renh14@mails.tsinghua.edu.cn
Ren Hao Male,born in 1991,Ph.D.candidate in School of Public Policy&Management,Tsinghua University.His research focuses on China's economy development and structure transformation.E-mail:renh14@mails.tsinghua.edu.cn
Hu Angang Born in 1953.He is one of the pioneers and leading authorities in the realm of contemporary China studies.He now serves as the Dean of the Institute of Contemporary China Studies of Tsinghua University and Professor of School of Public Policy&Management of Tsinghua University.He is also a member of the Advisory Committee for the Thirteenth and Twelfth Five-Year Plans under NDRC,a member of the Advisory Committee of the National Disaster Mitigation Committee,and a member of the Advisory Committee under Ministry of Agriculture.He was elected as the representative of the 18th CCP National Congress in 2012.Hu spent his early year in the rural area as educated youth.He started his studying after the resume of College Entrance Examination in 1977.Hu earned his Ph.D.degree in Chinese Academy of Science in 1988.He conducted his postdoctoral research at Yale University.He was a visiting scholar in Harvard University,Oxford University,Waseda University,and World Bank Institute.Hu has published about 70 books.His latest works are the Grand Strategy of China's 13th Five-Year Program (2015),Super China (2015),New Think Tank with Chinese Characteristics:Hu Angang's Views (2014),Collective Presidency in China (2013),China:Innovative Green Development(2012),and 2030 China:Towards Common Affluence (2011).Hu is awarded the Youth Entrust of National Natural Science Foundation of China (NSFC),Fudan Premium Fund of Management,Third Prize of the State Science and Technology Progress Awards,and the First Prize of Science and Technology Progress Awards of the Chinese Academy of Sciences.E-mail:anganghu@mail.tsinghua.edu.cn
任皓,男,1991年出生,清华大学公共管理学院博士研究生。研究方向为中国经济发展与结构转型。E-mail:renh14@mails.tsinghua.edu.cn
Ren Hao Male,born in 1991,Ph.D.candidate in School of Public Policy&Management,Tsinghua University.His research focuses on China's economy development and structure transformation.E-mail:renh14@mails.tsinghua.edu.cn
