汇率波动对我国对外贸易的影响分析（已在2016年第9期刊出）
Estimate the Effect of Exchange Rate Fluctuation on China’s Export and Import
Estimate the Effect of Exchange Rate Fluctuation on China’s Export and Import
作者
魏云捷 崔晓杨 鲍勤 汪寿阳
中文关键词
汇率波动，进出口，影响分析，事件分析法
英文关键词
exchange rate fluctuation, foreign trade, quantitative analysis, event study approach
中文摘要
对外贸易是拉动我国经济增长的重要因素之一。当前，我国经济处于结构调整的关键
时期，稳定的对外贸易发展对经济转型有重要意义[1-5]。 2015年，“ 8.11”汇率改革后人民币
出现了一定幅度的贬值，实际数据表明这并没有促进我国出口贸易，反而因大幅增加进口
成本而导致进出口规模“双降”，增大了我国经济所面临的风险。文章首先全面分析了当
前人民币兑美元存在贬值压力的原因以及当前我国对外贸易低速运行的特征；其次，基于
计量经济模型使用拓展的事件分析法测算了“ 8.11 汇改”对我国进出口贸易的影响；最后，
提出了相应的政策建议，指出要从战略高度应对人民币汇率波动，改善对外贸易环境，实
现对外贸易健康稳定发展。
英文摘要
Foreign trade has made important contribution to China economic growth, and the stable development of foreign trade is very
important to the China economic restructure. After “8.11” exchange rate reform, a rapid devaluation of RMB plays no active role on promoting
China’s export trade, and leads to the significantly double cut-down of import and export scale due to the increasing import cost, which also
increases the risk of Chinese economy. This paper analyzes the reasons of RMB exchange rate devaluation pressure, and presents the low-speed
operation characteristics of China’s current foreign trade. Based on the expanded event study method, this paper measures the effects of “8.11”
exchange rate reform on the China’s foreign trade, and proposes some policy suggestions.
作者简介
魏云捷
中科院预测科学研究中心博士研究生，研究方向：经济预测与分析、国际经济学、金融市场分析。 E-mail:weiyunjie@amss.ac.cn
Wei Yunjie
Ph D candidate of Center for Forecasting Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences. Her research interest includes economic analysis and forecasting, international economics and financial market studies. E-mail: weiyunjie@amss.ac.cn
汪寿阳
中科院预测科学研究中心主任、研究员，发展中国家科学院院士、国际系统与控制科学院院士、中科院“百人 计划”入选者、国家杰出青年基金获得者、教育部“长江计划”特聘教授，兼任中科院大学经济与管理学院院长、中 国系统工程学会理事长等。研究领域：经济预测与分析、博弈论、政策分析等。 E-mail:sywang@amss.ac.cn
Wang Shouyang
Director of Center for Forecasting Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Dean and Changjiang Distinguished Professor of School of Economics and Management, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences. He is a fellow of The World Academy of Sciences, an Academician of International Academy of Systems and Cybernetic Sciences, and the President of China Society of Systems Engineering. His research areas include economic analysis and forecasting, game theory and policy studies.E-mail: sywang@amss.ac.cn
中科院预测科学研究中心博士研究生，研究方向：经济预测与分析、国际经济学、金融市场分析。 E-mail:weiyunjie@amss.ac.cn
Wei Yunjie
Ph D candidate of Center for Forecasting Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences. Her research interest includes economic analysis and forecasting, international economics and financial market studies. E-mail: weiyunjie@amss.ac.cn
汪寿阳
中科院预测科学研究中心主任、研究员，发展中国家科学院院士、国际系统与控制科学院院士、中科院“百人 计划”入选者、国家杰出青年基金获得者、教育部“长江计划”特聘教授，兼任中科院大学经济与管理学院院长、中 国系统工程学会理事长等。研究领域：经济预测与分析、博弈论、政策分析等。 E-mail:sywang@amss.ac.cn
Wang Shouyang
Director of Center for Forecasting Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Dean and Changjiang Distinguished Professor of School of Economics and Management, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences. He is a fellow of The World Academy of Sciences, an Academician of International Academy of Systems and Cybernetic Sciences, and the President of China Society of Systems Engineering. His research areas include economic analysis and forecasting, game theory and policy studies.E-mail: sywang@amss.ac.cn
