“一带一路”沿线国家安全形势评估及对策（已在2016年第6期刊出）

Assessment of Countries' Security Situation along the Belt and Road and Countermeasures

        赵敏燕 董锁成 王喆 程昊 覃方铭 李宇 李泽红 李飞

         一带一路，恐怖主义，安全形势评估，时空格局，核密度估计法，全球恐怖主义指数

        the Belt and Road, terrorism, security situation, spatial-temporal Pattern, kernel density estimation (KDE), global terrorism index (GTI)

        “一带一路”战略构想的核心内涵是主动发展与沿线国家的经济合作伙伴关系。随着“一带一路”战略的不断推进，恐怖主义成为沿线国家五大非传统安全问题之首。自“9?11”事件之后，“一带一路”沿线地区和国家面临的恐怖主义威胁正在上升，各种形式的恐怖主义活动频繁。在总结恐怖主义事件研究进展的基础上，文章根据国家恐怖主义与反恐研究联盟、经济与和平研究所、国际海事组织发布的数据，采用核密度估计法和全球恐怖主义指数分析“一带一路”沿线国家恐怖主义事件空间集聚区的时空格局特征，较为全面地评估各国安全形势。结果显示：从空间格局上看，1970—2014?年恐怖主义事件分布整体呈现出“北非—中东—西亚—中亚—南亚—东南亚”的弧形震荡地带，南亚和中东是陆上恐怖主义集中区域，东南亚则是海上恐怖主义的热点区域；从时间演化上看，1970—2014?全球恐怖事件发生数量及死亡人数逐年增多，在?2014?年达到顶峰，并呈现四大主要特征。此外根据恐怖主义指数进行安全形势评估结果显示：“一带一路”沿线国家中?40?个处于和平状态，15?个处于危险状态，11?个处于震荡状态，伊拉克、阿富汗、巴基斯坦、印度、叙利亚?5?个国家处于高危红色区域。基于研究结果，文章提出建立全球安全预警和防范机制，制定国际非传统安全情报合作机制，实施国家“整体政府”反恐情报战略，多部门协调建立应急管理机制，打击虚拟空间的新型网络犯罪，高度重视跨国跨境民族宗教问题等战略对策。

        The core connotation of initiative of the Belt and Road Initiatives is positively developing economic cooperative partnership with countries along the Belt and Road. With the progress of the initiatives, terrorism has become the subject matter of five non-traditional security issues in many countries along the areas of the Belt and Road. After 9?.?11 incident, countries and areas along the Belt and Road have faced the rising threat from terrorism. Various kinds of terrorism activities occur frequently. In order to assess the countries’ security situation comprehensively, this study adopts kernel density estimation (KDE) and global terrorism index (GTI) to analyze the spatial pattern of the countries along the Belt and Road according to data published by the National Consortium for the Study of Terrorism and Responses to Terrorism, the Institute for Economics and Peace, and the International Martine Organization. Results show that in spatial pattern perspective, the terrorism incidents in 1970–2014 present a curved shock zone of North Africa, Middle East, West Asia, South Asia, and Southeast Asia. South Asia and Middle East are the concentrated areas of terrestrial terrorism; Southeast Asia is the hotspot region of marine terrorism. In time evolution respect, the number of terrorism incidents and death were increasing during 1970–2014, and it reached the peak in 2014. Besides, it presents four key features. When GTI was adopted to assess countries’ security situation, the results show that 40 countries are at peace, 15 countries are at danger, 11 countries are at shock, and 5 countries (Iraq, Afghanistan, Pakistan, India and Syria) are at highly dangerous region. Based on these research results, the paper proposed to establish a global security warning and prevention mechanism, develop the non-traditional security intelligence cooperation mechanism, implement the national “whole of government” counter-terrorism intelligence strategy, establish emergency management mechanism of multi-sectors coordination, fight against a new network crime in the virtual space, and attach great importance to cross-border ethnic and religious issues.