气候变化下的中国区域间人口迁移及其影响

Population Migration and Its Social-Economic Impact of China: A Climate Change Perspective

        孙翊(中国科学院科技战略咨询研究院 北京 100190)
        徐程瑾(华东师范大学地理信息科学教育部重点实验室 上海 200241)
        王铮(中国科学院科技战略咨询研究院 北京 100190;华东师范大学地理信息科学教育部重点实验室 上海 200241)

         气候变化;人口迁移;农业生产潜力;居民福利;区域差距

        climate change;population migration;potential agricultural productivity;regional gap;household welfare

        气候变化引发的中国人口迁移不仅是科学问题，更是需要着重关注的重要政策问题。文章通过分析农业生产潜力的变化来估计气候变化引致的人口迁移规模。研究发现，在气候变化农业生产潜力改变的条件下，中国的环渤海地区、成熟工业化地区和新型工业化地区成为主要的人口迁出地区，将面临严重的劳动力短缺。利用动态多区域CGE模型，分析人口分布格局的改变对区域增长、区域差距及居民福利的影响。结果表明，人口迁入地经济增长速度加快，人口迁出地经济增长速度降低，且人口迁移规模越大对经济影响也越大；人口迁移扩大了区域内差距，缩小了区域间差距，总体区域差距有所缩小。未来中国的区域政策必须考虑这些影响。

        In this paper, the Potential Agriculture Production index is introduced to estimate the scale of population migration caused by climate change by analyzing the change of Potential Agriculture Production index. We found that, for the changes of Potential Agriculture Production caused by climate change, circum-Bohai-Sea region, mature industrialized region and the industrializing region as the main regions of emigrating population will face a severe labor shortage. In addition, this paper also constructs a multi-regional CGE model, and analyzes the impacts caused by the change of population distribution pattern on regional economy, regional gap and the residents' welfare. The results show that the economic growth rate of the population immigrating regions has been accelerated; correspondingly, the economic growth rate of the emigrating population region has been reduced, and the greater the population migration scale, the greater the impact on the economy; population migration expands the inner-regional gap, and narrows the inter-regional gap, however the overall regional gap is somewhat reduced.