中国高技术产业如何赶超美国

How China's High-technology Industry Catches-up with United States

        胡鞍钢(清华大学公共管理学院 北京 100084;清华大学国情研究院 北京 100084)
        任皓(清华大学公共管理学院 北京 100084;清华大学国情研究院 北京 100084)

         高技术产业;赶超;生命周期;多重效应

        high-technology industry;catching-up;life-cycle;multiple effects

        20世纪80年代，邓小平做出战略决策，国家制定“ 863计划”，中国高技术创新和产业发展开始起步。在经历30年的成长期后，我国高技术产业的增加值占GDP比重达4.9%，成为国民经济重要的支柱性产业。高技术产业呈现出增加值高增长、就业高增长的态势，并在高技术产业增加值、产品出口额、出口增加值各方面都实现了对美国的追赶和超越。这主要得益于高技术产业与经济增长的相互促进与互补带动，表现为经济发展与高技术产业发展生命周期趋势的一致性。此外，高技术产业具有明显的外部性，起到了促进制造业高增长、改善经济结构、推动贸易发展转型、发挥技术溢出效应的作用。高技术产业已成为我国国民经济发展的先导产业、重要的支柱产业与新的增长引擎。展望未来，实现高技术产业由大变强，由多变优，由粗变精，由跟随变为引领，在质量创新等方面赶超美国。

        In the 1980s, Deng Xiaoping's strategic decision prompted Chinese government to formulate the "863 Plan" which launched China on its road of high-tech industry innovation and development. After 30 years of development, the added value of China high-tech industry reaching 4.9% of GDP made it become an important pillar industry of the national economy. With the characteristics of high growth rate of added value and employment, China's high-tech industry is catching up and even surpassing the United States in terms of industry added value, exports volume, and export added value. This is mainly because the complementarities and mutual benefits between high-tech industry and economic development, reflected by the compatibility of their life-cycles. In addition, high-tech has great externalities, namely promoting highgrowth of economy and manufacturing industry, facilitating the economic structure transformation, increasing trade growth, accelerating trade structure upgrading, and creating technology spill-over effects. Thus, it has also become a leading industry and new growth engine for national economy. The future perspective of China's high-tech industry will be an upgrading process in terms of quality and surpassing the United State to top the world.