基于外部性理论的中国“一带一路”地缘战略

China's Geopolitical Strategy of the Belt and Road Initiative Based on Theory of Externality

        于会录(鲁东大学 资源与环境工程学院 烟台 264025;中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所 北京 100101)
        董锁成(中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所 北京 100101)
        李宇(中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所 北京 100101)
        李泽红(中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所 北京 100101)
        石广义(中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所 北京 100101)
        李飞(中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所 北京 100101;中国-东盟区域发展协同创新中心 南宁 530004)
        李富佳(中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所 北京 100101)
        常永智(中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所 北京 100101)

         地缘战略;外部性;负外部性最小化;守成大国;新兴大国

        geopolitical strategy;externality;minimization of negative externality;hegemonic power;emerging power

        文章在总结既有地缘政治理论的基础上,分析了地缘政治理论的不足之处,认为既有地缘政治理论宏观性太强,理论缺乏国际伦理基础,难以适应经济全球化时代的地缘政治现实。文章将经济学的外部性概念引入地缘政治领域,提出了地缘战略外部性概念,认为在经济全球化时代,一个国家的地缘战略会产生外部性,且外部性随国家的规模和世界影响力的增大而变大;通过负外部性最小化可以实现国家利益最大化,负外部性最小化应该成为地缘战略优化的目标。地缘战略具有外部性的特点对地缘战略研究具有重要启示意义。文章认为,地缘战略研究应将区域或世界地缘政治格局视为一个有机系统;应探索建立地缘政治与地缘经济之间的数量关系模型;加强地缘政策及其效果的系统性研究;重视地缘政治的历史案例研究。文章以负外部性最小化为指导原则分析了守成大国和我国(新兴大国)的地缘战略选择,认为正外部性最大化是守成大国最核心的地缘战略利益,遏制正在崛起的新兴大国是守成大国的霸权战略思维。文章分析了守成大国和新兴大国之间政治经济关系发展的阶段性特点和主要发展趋势,并总结了我国"一带一路"地缘战略应该注意的重大问题:(1)加强世界和周边区域地缘政治格局的系统性研究,努力实现地缘战略负外部性最小化。(2)尊重西方守成大国的地位和利益,增加同西方守成大国的交流沟通,降低因形势误判而发生正面冲突的概率。(3)切实提高中国在国际规则制定领域的话语权,增强文化软实力,增加以自己为核心的地缘政治体系的层次和外围国家的数量,绝不追求地缘政治地位的正外部性(霸权利益)。(4)借鉴改革开放"摸着石头过河"及建设"经济特区"的经验,增加地缘政策储备,为化解可能出现的地缘政治危机提供足够多的应急预案。

        Based on the review of present geopolitical theory, this paper analyzes the shortcomings of these theories which include too broad macroscopic perspective, lack of the foundation of international ethics, and considers that these theories cannot adapt the evolution trends and characteristics of international geopolitical pattern under the backdrop of globalization and cannot provide sufficient theoretical guidance for the formulation of China's geopolitical strategy. This paper puts forward the concept of externality of geopolitical strategy, and considers that: in the era of globalization, country's geopolitical strategy would produce externality which will increase with increase of this country's scale and international influence. The minimization of negative externality, which should become the goal of optimization of geopolitical strategy, can help to realize the maximization of state's interests. The characteristic that geopolitical strategy possesses externality is of great significance for the research of geopolitical strategy. This paper argues that: the research of geopolitical strategy should look regional or global geopolitical patterns as an organic system; mathematical model should be developed to discuss the relationship between geopolitics and geoeconomics; systematically study of the geopolitical policy and its efficiencies should be strengthened; pay more attention to the study of historic case of geopolitical events. Based on the guiding principle of minimization of negative externality, this paper analyzes the geopolitical strategies of hegemonic country and China. The maximization of positive externality is the most important geopolitical strategic benefit of hegemonic power, containment of the development of emerging power is main strategic logic thinking of hegemonic power. The paper analyzes the phase characteristics and development trends of the geopolitical and geo-economic relations between hegemonic power and emerging power, and summarizes some key issues to which China's geopolitical strategy of the Belt and Road Initiative should pay attention. Firstly, strengthen systematic study of the geopolitical patterns of the world and China's surrounding areas in order to achieve the minimization of negative externality and maximization of state's interests. Secondly, respect America's interests and international status, strive to establish a new type of win-win relationship between two countries in which they can live in friendship and develop in parallel, strengthen official and folk communication in order to decrease the probability of conflict because of strategic miscalculation. Thirdly, enhance the right to speak in the field of working out international regulations, improve China's cultural soft power, and increase the number of levels of geopolitical system which is established in the leading role of China and the number of peripheral countries, but never pursue positive externality. Fourthly, learn from China's successful experiences of "crossing a river by feeling the way over the stones" of reform and opening up and construction of economic zones, increase the reserve of geopolitical policies, prepare sufficient emergency plan for future possible geopolitical crisis. Fifthly, strengthen our endeavors to promote the construction concepts of the Belt and Road Initiative which include open and inclusive, mutual benefit and win-win results, community with a common future.