当前重大厄尔尼诺事件对我国春夏气候的影响

Current Super El Niño Event and Its Impacts on Climate in China in Spring and Summer

        刘屹岷(中国科学院大气物理研究所 大气科学和地球流体力学数值模拟国家重点实验室 北京 100029)
        刘伯奇(中国气象科学研究院 北京 100081)
        任荣彩(中国科学院大气物理研究所 大气科学和地球流体力学数值模拟国家重点实验室 北京 100029)
        段安民(中国科学院大气物理研究所 大气科学和地球流体力学数值模拟国家重点实验室 北京 100029)
        毛江玉(中国科学院大气物理研究所 大气科学和地球流体力学数值模拟国家重点实验室 北京 100029)

         重大厄尔尼诺事件;印度洋海温变化;华南春雨;东部夏季主汛期雨带

        super El Niño event;2015/2016;variation of sea surface temperature;Indian Ocean;spring rain in South China;summer main rain belts in East China

        2015年秋冬季发生了21世纪以来最强的厄尔尼诺事件。文章在介绍厄尔尼诺事件的定义、特征、成因和影响东亚季风的物理过程的基础上,指出了厄尔尼诺事件对印度洋海温变化的影响,阐述了厄尔尼诺次年我国主雨带华南春雨和夏季主汛期(华南前汛期、江淮梅雨期、华北东北雨期和华南后汛期)将出现降水增加,并给出2015年12月我国东部大范围环境污染与厄尔尼诺事件的联系和对2016年我国主雨带的预测分析。

        A mature and strong El Niño was present in the tropical Pacific Ocean during the autumn to winter in 2015. This 2015/2016 El Niño is one of the strongest El Niño events in the past twenty years. Based on the introduction of El Niño definition, features, causes, and general physical processes of the impact on East Asian monsoon, this paper presents the influences of the El Niño event in the variability of Indian Ocean sea surface temperature, and addresses that there will be excessive rainfall in the main rain belts, i. e. the spring rain in south China, early summer rainfall in Southeast China, Mei-yu in the valleys of Huai River and Yangtze River, and rain period in North and Northeast China during the decay period of El Niño events. The associated mechanisms are unraveled. Furthermore, it is documented that the current super El Niño event contributes to the large range of environmental pollution in Eastern China in December of 2015. At last, the forecast to the pattern of the main rain belts in East China in the coming spring and summer is displayed.