[2015年第1期] 中国网络社会治理的舆论指数

Opinion index of social governance on Chinese network

        李倩倩 黄远 姜景 沈亁(1 中国科学院科技政策与管理科学研究所 北京 100190 2 中国科学院大学 北京 100049)

         社会治理，公众舆论，社会燃烧理论，意见领袖，舆论指数

        social governance, public opinion, social combustion theory, opinion leaders, opinion index

        在中国社会改革的阵痛期和复杂网络的创新社会治理背景下，社会舆论是反映社会 运行态势的“晴雨表”， 是预警社会风险的前兆。 自媒体时代， 以“用户为核心”的信息传播模 式使得社会舆情的定量挖掘成为可能。 本文基于社会燃烧理论提出中国网络舆论指数，与已 有传播指数不同 ，不是简单的信息度量指标的合成，而是舆论传播的“数量”、“能量”和“质量” 的综合表达。 舆论指数由舆论“集中度”、舆论“组织度”和舆论“临界度”构成， 分别体现网民 的活跃程度、舆论热度的差异性和负向舆论的社会破坏力。 最后， 从提高创新网络社会治理 的战略需求出发， 提出建立舆论指数的实时大盘， 并重点加强网络舆情预警体系研究与实践 探索。

        Entering the 21st century, the internet and advanced communication have made the world flat. People access to information equally. Furthermore, with the merge and development of internet technology, the world has been dramatically changed. Internet has already changed social dynamics, social system, social structure, social behavior, social function, and social organization. Internet eliminates social class, social division of labor, and binary interpersonal relationship. At present, China is being in the important stage of economy irregularity easily, society disorder easily, psychology imbalance easily, and social management rules need to readjust. Heterization of social thoughts, fragile natural foundation, the unbalanced benefit distribution, and a significant rich-poor gap will lead to various emergencies and social crisis. In the throes of Chinese social reform and in the background of social governance innovation in complex network, public opinion is a“barometer” of social situation, and a precursor to alert social risk. The stimulus from emergent event forced the formulation of consensus on Internet. Internet opinion has the characteristics of anonymity, openness, and equality. Public opinion can reflect altitude and tendency of the people. In addition, National leaders pay great attention to the online opinion. In the We-Media era, users post short messages（up to 140 characters） to a network of subscribers. In online social networks, opinion leaders have a large number of subscribers and they have an influence up on public opinion. The“user-centric” information dissemination makes it possible to mine social opinion quantitatively. In cyberspace, each user could be considered as a particle of the quantizing society which is the most notable characteristics of modern social physics. Modern social physics introduce the concepts, principles, and methods of natural science to simulate, explain, and explore the social behavior rules and the sustainable development laws. Modern social physics tries to explore the macro phenomena from the random and disordered behavior of each individual. Social combustion theory which was first proposed by Professor Niu Wenyuan and has become the core theory of modern social physics. It carries a reasonable analogy between the natural burning phenomenon and social disorder, instability and turmoil. Social combustion theory use the concepts of social combustion material, social catalysis, and social ignition temperature to explain social phenomenon in social governance. Based on social combustion theory, we propose Chinese opinion index, which is different from the existing ones for synthesis of simple information metrics, to express the“quantity”,“energy”, and “quality” of opinion spreading. Chinese opinion index is consist of“opinion focus degree”,“opinion organization degree”, and“opinion critical degree”. Based on social combustion theory, we apply“opinion focus degree” to reflect users’ activity. Social conflicts and different interest demand are taken as“social combustion materials”. We assume that the more social combustion materials, the more microblogs are posted and the more active the users are. We apply “opinion organization degree” to reflect difference of opinion strength. Given the influence of different information spread heat in opinion formation, we measure the difference between top N/2 microblogs and last N/2 microblogs. This difference catalyzes people to reach a consensus in the opinion field. There are four kinds of opinion organization form: hierarchy, strong hierarchy, weak hierarchy, and inorganization. We apply“opinion critical degree” to reflect social disruption of negative opinion. The irrational opinion will destroy social harmony and even lead to new social conflict. We consider social ignition temperature are rumors, negative users and information which are related to social stability. Finally, starting from the strategic demand of improving and innovating network society governance, we propose two policy advisements: constructing real time opinion index inspection platform and practicing network early warning system.