2014年我国经济形势展望及预测

2014 China’s Economy Outlook

        中国科学院预测科学研究中心宏观经济研究部

         GDP增速，物价，投资，消费，进出口，预测

        GDP growth, price index, investment, consumption, imports and exports, forecasting

        2013 年，我国经济增速结束了2010 年以来持续下滑的势头，经济增长进入一个中高速发展期，预计2013 年全年GDP增速为7.7%左右。展望2014 年，虽受到内需不足和外需不确定等诸多不利因素的困扰，但由于十八届三中全会深化改革的推动，稳定经济增长的有利因素仍然是中国经济的主旋律。预计2014 年中国经济增速呈前低后高趋势，上半年GDP增速约为7.4%；而随着深化改革红利的逐步释放，下半年GDP增速有望达到7.7%左右，全年经济发展比较平稳，全年GDP增速为7.6%左右。在宏观经济的其他方面，CPI 增长率预计高于2013 年，全年同比上升3.1%左右；外需可能趋于回暖，进口和出口增速预计均为8.2%左右，增幅略高于2013 年，贸易顺差有所增加；消费总体上保持平稳增长，预计2014 年名义增速比2013 年略有上升，达到13.7%左右；投资增速趋稳，2014 年增速在20%左右，增速与2013 年基本持平。总体而言，2014 年中国经济整体上将保持稳增长、低通胀的良好态势，这将为一系列深化改革措施的实施以及经济结构的转型提供坚实的基础。

        China’s economy has entered into a stable period with medium and high rate of growth in 2013 from the consecutive decline over the previous years. The GDP growth rate may reach 7.7%. Looking into the prospect of 2014, the favorite factors still play the major roles under the inspiration of the reform policies of Third Plenary Session of the Eighteenth Central Committee, although the economy are suffering the trouble of insufficient domestic demand and uncertainty of oversea demand. We predict that China’s economic growth in 2014 might be around 7.6% with 7.4% for the first half year and 7.7% for the second half year. CPI in 2014 might be around 3.1%, higher than what in 2013. Both the growth rates of exports and outputs in 2014 might be around 8.2%, slight higher than that in 2013. The balance of foreign trade in 2014 will be larger than that in 2013. The consumptions in 2014 will keep a stable pace. Its growth rate might reach 13.7%, higher than that in 2013. The growth rate of investment might be around 20%, the similar level of 2013. In a summary, the economy in 2014 will stay in a relatively sound condition with stable growth and low inflation. Such a condition will provide a solid basis for the deepening reform initiated by the Third Plenary Session.