“十一五”期间我国能源需求及节能潜力预测

China’s Energy Demand and Conservation Potential Forecast During the 11th Five-Year Plan Period

        魏一鸣(中国科学院科技政策与管理科学研究所中国科学院预测科学研究中心 北京100080)
        廖华(中国科学院科技政策与管理科学研究所中国科学院预测科学研究中心 北京100080)
        范英(中国科学院科技政策与管理科学研究所中国科学院预测科学研究中心 北京100080)

         能源需求;能源强度;价格弹性;投资率

        energy demand;energy intensity;price elasticity;investment ratio

        节约能源是深入贯彻科学发展观、加快建设节约型社会的重要内容之一,我国“十一五”规划纲要提出了要实现2010年能源强度比2005年下降20%左右的目标。本文通过建立能源经济模型,分析了投资率、能源价格、技术进步等影响能源需求的关键因素,针对不同的经济增长情景,对“十一五”期间我国的能源需求和节能潜力进行了预测,提出了力争在“十一五”期间实现较低能源需求的对策建议。

        Saving energy is one of the crucial issues of fully implementing the scientific concept of development and building conservation-minded society. In its 11th Five Year Plan, China has set a target of reducing its energy intensity by about 20% by 2010 in respect to 2005 value. By building an energy-economy model, this paper studies the impacts of investment ratio, energy price and technological progress on energy demand, forecasts China’s energy demand and conservation potential during 2006-2010 based on some possible economic growth scenarios, and puts forward policy recommendations to realize less energy demand in this period.