刘莉娜,曲建升,曾静静,宋晓谕,廖琴,牛艺博,刘燕飞,秦冰雪.全球碳中和形势分析及对我国的启示建议[J].中国科学院院刊,2026,41(8):1731-1744.

全球碳中和形势分析及对我国的启示建议

Analysis of global carbon neutrality situation and policy insights for China

刘莉娜^1,2
中国科学院西北生态环境资源研究院干旱区生态安全与可持续发展全国重点实验室 兰州 730000;甘肃省知识计算与决策智能重点实验室 兰州 730000
LIU Lina^1,2
State Key Laboratory of Ecological Safety and Sustainable Development in Arid Lands, Northwest Institute of Eco-Environment and Resources, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Lanzhou 730000, China;Gansu Key Laboratory of Knowledge Computing and Intelligent Decision, Lanzhou 730000, China
曲建升^2,3*
甘肃省知识计算与决策智能重点实验室 兰州 730000;中国科学院文献情报中心 北京 100190
QU Jiansheng^2,3*
Gansu Key Laboratory of Knowledge Computing and Intelligent Decision, Lanzhou 730000, China;National Science Library, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190, China
曾静静^1,2
中国科学院西北生态环境资源研究院干旱区生态安全与可持续发展全国重点实验室 兰州 730000;甘肃省知识计算与决策智能重点实验室 兰州 730000
ZENG Jingjing^1,2
State Key Laboratory of Ecological Safety and Sustainable Development in Arid Lands, Northwest Institute of Eco-Environment and Resources, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Lanzhou 730000, China;Gansu Key Laboratory of Knowledge Computing and Intelligent Decision, Lanzhou 730000, China
宋晓谕^1,2
中国科学院西北生态环境资源研究院干旱区生态安全与可持续发展全国重点实验室 兰州 730000;甘肃省知识计算与决策智能重点实验室 兰州 730000
SONG Xiaoyu^1,2
State Key Laboratory of Ecological Safety and Sustainable Development in Arid Lands, Northwest Institute of Eco-Environment and Resources, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Lanzhou 730000, China;Gansu Key Laboratory of Knowledge Computing and Intelligent Decision, Lanzhou 730000, China
廖琴^1,2
中国科学院西北生态环境资源研究院干旱区生态安全与可持续发展全国重点实验室 兰州 730000;甘肃省知识计算与决策智能重点实验室 兰州 730000
LIAO Qin^1,2
State Key Laboratory of Ecological Safety and Sustainable Development in Arid Lands, Northwest Institute of Eco-Environment and Resources, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Lanzhou 730000, China;Gansu Key Laboratory of Knowledge Computing and Intelligent Decision, Lanzhou 730000, China
牛艺博^1,2
中国科学院西北生态环境资源研究院干旱区生态安全与可持续发展全国重点实验室 兰州 730000;甘肃省知识计算与决策智能重点实验室 兰州 730000
NIU Yibo^1,2
State Key Laboratory of Ecological Safety and Sustainable Development in Arid Lands, Northwest Institute of Eco-Environment and Resources, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Lanzhou 730000, China;Gansu Key Laboratory of Knowledge Computing and Intelligent Decision, Lanzhou 730000, China
刘燕飞^1,2
中国科学院西北生态环境资源研究院干旱区生态安全与可持续发展全国重点实验室 兰州 730000;甘肃省知识计算与决策智能重点实验室 兰州 730000
LIU Yanfei^1,2
State Key Laboratory of Ecological Safety and Sustainable Development in Arid Lands, Northwest Institute of Eco-Environment and Resources, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Lanzhou 730000, China;Gansu Key Laboratory of Knowledge Computing and Intelligent Decision, Lanzhou 730000, China
秦冰雪^1,2
中国科学院西北生态环境资源研究院干旱区生态安全与可持续发展全国重点实验室 兰州 730000;甘肃省知识计算与决策智能重点实验室 兰州 730000
QIN Bingxue^1,2
State Key Laboratory of Ecological Safety and Sustainable Development in Arid Lands, Northwest Institute of Eco-Environment and Resources, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Lanzhou 730000, China;Gansu Key Laboratory of Knowledge Computing and Intelligent Decision, Lanzhou 730000, China

         碳达峰;碳中和;能源转型;可持续发展

        carbon peaking;carbon neutrality;energy transformation;sustainability

        实现“双碳”目标，将给我国经济社会带来全面且深刻的系统性变革。通过剖析全球碳中和趋势可知，当前碳中和议题主要围绕减排类别、关键领域、科技创新以及碳市场建设这4个维度展开。我国正稳步构建多层级 （国家、地区、企业） 的碳中和政策框架体系。在能源、工业、交通、建筑、农林等重点领域，我国不仅积极采取切实有效的行动，还大力展开科技布局。同时，碳市场建设也初显成效，为我国实现“双碳”目标筑牢了战略保障。然而，在碳中和新形势下，我国仍面临着一系列严峻挑战。在能源领域，能源转型与安全保障亟待解决，既要加快清洁能源发展，又要确保能源供应稳定性；在工业领域，产业升级与技术创新刻不容缓，传统工业面临绿色转型压力，新兴产业的技术创新有待进一步提升；在交通领域，需要加大投入以完善基础设施，并积极推动绿色出行；在建筑领域，探索低碳建筑与净零路径面临技术与成本难题；在生态碳汇领域，如何科学有效地提升生态系统碳汇能力是关键；在碳市场未来建设方面，市场机制、监督体系等仍需进一步完善。

        Achieving the goal of “dual carbon” (carbon peaking and carbon neutrality) will bring comprehensive and profound systematic changes in China's social economy. By analyzing the global trend of carbon neutrality, it can be seen that the topics of carbon neutrality mainly focus on four aspects: emission reduction categories, key areas, technological innovation, and carbon market construction. At present, China is steadily building a multi-level (national, regional, and enterprise) carbon-neutral policy framework system. In key areas such as energy, industry, transportation, construction, agriculture, and forestry, China not only actively takes practical and effective actions but also vigorously carries out scientific and technological deployments. Meanwhile, the construction of the carbon market has also shown some initial success, providing a solid strategic guarantee for China to achieve the “dual carbon” goals. Nevertheless, under the new situation of carbon neutrality, China still faces a series of severe challenges. In the energy sector, the issues of energy transformation and security assurance urgently need to be addressed. It is necessary to accelerate the development of clean energy while ensuring the stability of the energy supply. In the industrial sector, industrial upgrading and technological innovation are of great urgency. Traditional industries are under pressure to undergo green transformation, and the technological innovation capabilities of emerging industries need to be further enhanced. In the transportation sector, increased investment is required to improve infrastructure, and green travel should be actively promoted. In the construction sector, technological and cost challenges are faced in exploring low-carbon building and net-zero pathways. In the ecological carbon sink sector, the key lies in how to scientifically and effectively enhance the carbon sequestration capacity of ecosystems. In terms of future construction of the carbon market, market mechanisms and supervision systems still need to be further improved.