中国科学院院刊-国家科学思想库核心媒体

彭京备,布和朝鲁,郑飞,陈红,郎咸梅,詹艳玲,林朝晖,张庆云,林壬萍,李超凡,马洁华,田宝强,包庆,穆松宁,陆日宇,朱江.2019年夏季全国气候趋势展望[J].中国科学院院刊,2019,34(6):693-699.

2019年夏季全国气候趋势展望

Seasonal Outlook of China for Summer 2019

作者

彭京备
中国科学院大气物理研究所北京 100029
PENG Jingbei
Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, China
布和朝鲁
中国科学院大气物理研究所北京 100029
BUEH Cholaw
Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, China
郑飞
中国科学院大气物理研究所北京 100029
ZHENG Fei
Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, China
陈红
中国科学院大气物理研究所北京 100029
CHEN Hong
Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, China
郎咸梅
中国科学院大气物理研究所北京 100029
LANG Xianmei
Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, China
詹艳玲
中国科学院大气物理研究所北京 100029
ZHAN Yanling
Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, China
林朝晖
中国科学院大气物理研究所北京 100029
LIN Zhaohui
Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, China
张庆云
中国科学院大气物理研究所北京 100029
ZHANG Qingyun
Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, China
林壬萍
中国科学院大气物理研究所北京 100029
LIN Renping
Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, China
李超凡
中国科学院大气物理研究所北京 100029
LI Chaofan
Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, China
马洁华
中国科学院大气物理研究所北京 100029
MA Jiehua
Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, China
田宝强
中国科学院大气物理研究所北京 100029
TIAN Baoqiang
Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, China
包庆
中国科学院大气物理研究所北京 100029
BAO Qing
Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, China
穆松宁
中国科学院大气物理研究所北京 100029
MU Songning
Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, China
陆日宇
中国科学院大气物理研究所北京 100029
LU Riyu
Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, China
朱江
中国科学院大气物理研究所北京 100029
ZHU Jiang
Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, China

中文关键词

夏季降水形势;气候预测;登陆台风

英文关键词

summer precipitation anomalies;climate prediction;landing typhoon

中文摘要

2019年春夏季，赤道中东太平洋将维持弱-中等强度厄尔尼诺（El Niño）。中国科学院大气物理研究所的全国气候趋势预测结果表明，预计2019年汛期（6—8月），长江中下游以南大部分地区降水偏多，其中江南地区偏多2—5成，可能发生局地洪涝灾害；新疆北部、东北北部、四川东部和陕西南部等地降水正常略偏多。我国其他大部分地区降水正常略偏少，其中河套地区降水偏少2—5成。预计2019年登陆台风数正常略偏多。

英文摘要

The ENSO prediction system of Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences (IAP, CAS) predicts that El Niño conditions are likely to continue through the Northern Hemisphere spring and summer 2019. According to the seasonally averaged rainfall prediction of IAP, a wetter-than-normal condition is predicted for most parts of southern China, North parts of Northeast China and the Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region. The other parts of China will experience a drier-than-normal condition during the boreal summer. The center of less-than-normal precipitation is located in the Hetao area. The landing typhoon will be more than normal in the summer of 2019.

DOI10.16418/j.issn.1000-3045.2019.06.010

作者简介

彭京备 中国科学院大气物理研究所国际气候与环境科学中心高级工程师。主要从事短期气候预测和灾害性天气气候机理诊断研究。
E-mail:pengjingbei@mail.iap.ac.cn
PENG Jingbei Received B.S.degree from Meteorological Institute,Beijing,China,and M.S.and Ph.D.degrees from Institute of Atmospheric Physics,Chinese Academy of Sciences (IAP/CAS),Beijing,China,in 1991,2004,and 2009,respectively.Her current research interests include short-term climate prediction and diagnosis study of the mechanism of disastrous weather.Since 2012,she has been a senior engineer with the International Center for Climate and Environment Science (ICCES),IAPCAS,Beijing,China.
E-mail:pengjingbei@mail.iap.ac.cn
布和朝鲁 中国科学院大气物理研究所国际气候与环境科学中心副主任,研究员。主要从事中高纬度大气动力学和气候变化研究。
E-mail:bueh@lasg.iap.ac.cn
BUEH Cholaw Received B.S.degree from Beijing University in 1990,M.S.degree from Nanjing University in 1993,and Ph.D.degree from Institute of Atmospheric Physics,Chinese Academy of Sciences (IAP,CAS) in 1997,respectively.His current research interests include the mid-and high-latitude atmospheric dynamics and climate change.Since 2006,he has been a full professor with IAP,CAS.He is currently the deputy director of International Center for Climate and Environment Science (ICCES),IAP,CAS.
E-mail:bueh@lasg.iap.ac.cn