新冠肺炎疫情对全球生产体系的冲击和我国产业链加速外移的风险分析

The COVID-19 Shock on Global Production Chains and Risk of Accelerated China’s Industrial Chains Outflow
作者
        祝坤福 高翔 杨翠红 汪寿阳
中文关键词
         新冠肺炎,产能缺口,全球生产网络,产业链外移
英文关键词
        COVID-19, production gaps, global production network, industrial chains outflow
中文摘要
        新冠肺炎疫情短期内严重冲击了我国生产供应,加大了国内产业链加速外移的风险。文章基于当前疫情导致我国短期生产与出口供给缺口的研究,结合我国在全球生产网络和亚洲生产链的枢纽位置,就疫情对全球产业链的冲击及其引发的我国产业链加速外移风险进行了剖析。研究结果表明,疫情引起的产能缺口将对全球生产体系产生冲击,跨国企业将加快生产链布局调整,需密切关注疫情造成部分产业链加速外移的风险。最后,就企业复工保障、疫情防控和产业链布局等方面提出相关政策建议。
英文摘要
        The outbreak of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) has severely impacted China’s production and supply in the short term, and increased the risk of accelerated outward relocation of domestic industry chain. Based on the measuring of China’s production and export supply gaps caused by COVID-19, and key position of China in global production network and the Asian production chain, this article analyzed the COVID-19 shock on the global production chains and the risk of accelerated China’s industrial outflow. The results show that the output gaps caused by the COVID-19 will have a deep impact on the global production system, and multinational enterprises will speed up the relocation of production chains. Therefore, the increasing risk of industrial outflow should be concerned. Finally, suggestions are put forward to efforts in the COVID-19 control, coordination on economics, and the relocation of production chains.
作者简介
祝坤福
对外经济贸易大学全球价值链研究院副教授、博士生导师,中国科学院预测科学研究中心副研究员。研究方向为全球价值链、投入产出经济学和宏观经济分析。曾获孙冶方经济科学奖、张培刚发展经济学奖、安子介国际贸易研究奖和高等学校科学研究优秀成果奖。
E-mail: zhukunfu@163.com
ZHU Kunfu
Associate Professor and Ph.D. Supervisor at the Research Institute for Global Value Chains, University of International Business and Economics, Associate Researcher at the Center for Forecasting Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS), majoring in global value chains, input-output economic and macroeconomic analysis. He was awarded the Sun Yefang Economic Science Award, Zhang Peigang Development Economics Award, An Zijie International Trade Research Award, and the Outstanding Achievement Award for Scientific Research in Colleges and Universities.
E-mail: zhukunfu@163.com

汪寿阳
中国科学院预测科学研究中心主任、研究员。发展中国家科学院院士,国际系统与控制科学院院士。兼任中国科学院大学经济与管理学院院长,多种国内外学术期刊的主编、领域主编,以及《中国科学院院刊》编委。研究领域:经济分析与预测、政策模拟与仿真、系统工程。
E-mail: sywang@amss.ac.cn
WANG Shouyang
Founding Director and Professor of Center for Forecasting Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS). He is a TWAS fellow and an academician of the International Academy of Systems and Cybernetics Sciences. He is currently the dean of School of Economics and Management, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences and the editor-in-chief or a department editor of several journals and an editorial board member of Bulletin of Chinese Academy of Sciences. His research interest includes economic analysis and forecasting, policy modelling and simulation, and systems engineering.
E-mail: sywang@amss.ac.cn
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