基于大数据回溯新冠肺炎的扩散趋势及中国对疫情的控制研究

Backtracking Transmission of COVID-19 in China Based on Big Data Source, and Effect of Strict Pandemic Control Policy
作者
        赵序茅 李欣海 聂常虹
中文关键词
         新冠肺炎,大数据,武汉,北京
英文关键词
        COVID-19, big data, Wuhan, Beijing
中文摘要
        自2019年12月以来,湖北省武汉市出现新型冠状病毒肺炎(简称“新冠肺炎”),随后疫情在全国范围内暴发。相关学者对此次疫情扩散趋势做了大量研究,但基于模型的估算普遍存在高估传染系数和感染人群的问题。基于此,利用大数据回溯新冠肺炎在全国扩散的趋势和传染系数,得出结论:(1)在扩散前期(2020年1月24号之前)武汉输出的人口是全国各城市(武汉除外)新冠肺炎扩散的主要威胁,之后每个省、自治区、直辖市的人口与确诊病例数的关系逐渐增强,体现出本地传播的趋势;(2)利用SEIR模型拟合武汉和北京两地新冠肺炎确诊病例得出真实传播系数(R0),揭示武汉的R0高于北京,考虑到人为控制因素,2019年12月1日—2020年2月9日两地的实际的R0均大幅度下降。基于此,对疫情期间存在的问题进行针对性建议,并从数据上论证了中国政府对于疫情扩散强有力的控制能力,对阻止国内及世界范围的疫情扩散作出积极贡献。
英文摘要
        In December 2019, COVID-19 appeared and started transmission in local population in Wuhan, Hubei Province. We analyzed the spread process of COVID-19 and found that imported number of passengers from Wuhan before the city closure is the main threat to other cities in China, whereas later on local transmission in those cities gradually become the main force of virus transmission. Based on SEIR model, we found that the basic reproductive number R0 for Wuhan is much higher than that of Beijing. When pandemic control measures (traffic control, holiday extension, 14-day-long quarantine, etc.) are taken into account, the R0 dropped substantially. China’s progressive pandemic control policy ensure the situation under control, and the timely situation reporting and data sharing greatly contribute to the whole world fighting against this novel coronavirus.
作者简介
赵序茅
兰州大学生态学创新研究院青年研究员,中国科学院动物研究所博士,国际灵长类协会会员,中国科普作家协会会员,北京作家协会会员。主要研究领域包括:全球气候变化生态学、保护生物学。在国内外发表学术论文10余篇,出版科普书籍13部,多次获得省部级奖项。
E-mail: zhaoxm@lzu.edu.cn
ZHAO Xumao
Research Professor, Institute of Innovation Ecology, Lanzhou University. He achieved Ph.D. degree from Institute of Zoology, Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS), in 2019. He is also the member of International Primate Association, member of China Science Writers Association, and member of Beijing Writers Association. His current research interests include climate change ecology and conservation biology. From 2014 to 2020, he has published more than 10 scientific paper and 13 books about popular science and won provincial and ministerial awards for many times.
E-mail: zhaoxm@lzu.edu.cn

聂常虹
中国科学院动物研究所党委书记、副所长,中国科学院大学教授、博士生导师,中国科学院大学中国政府和社会资本合作(PPP)研究中心学术委员会副主任,中华人民共和国联合国教科文组织全国委员会咨询专家,全国知识管理标准化技术委员会委员。主要从事科技财政、科技金融、科技成果转化、宏观经济与产业政策等方面的研究,主持财政部、国家发展和改革委员会、科学技术部、国家自然基金委员会等部委重点课题多项。在《新华文摘》《人民日报》《人民日报内参》《管理评论》《宏观经济研究》《财政研究》和Journal of Systems Science and Complexity等国家核心期刊及SCI源期刊发表学术论文50余篇,出版合著4部,专著2部;10余篇论文或研究报告获得部级一等奖或二等奖。
E-mail: Chnie@ioz.ac.cn
NIE Changhong
Deputy Director of Institute of Zoology (IOZ), Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS), Researcher and Ph.D. Supervisor at University of Chinese Academy of Sciences (UCAS), Deputy Chair of Academic Committee of Public-Private-Partnership (PPP) Research Center, UCAS, Consultant Expert of National Commission of the People’s Republic of China for UNESCO, and member of the National Knowledge Management Standardization Technical Committee. She is mainly engaged in the research of science and technology finance, transformation of scientific and technological achievements, macroeconomics, and industrial policies. She has presided over several projects of the Ministry of Finance, the National Development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Science and Technology, and the National Natural Science Foundation of China. More than 10 of her papers or official documents have won the first prize or second prize of Ministry level, more than 50 of her academic papers have been published in SCI indexed journals or core journals such as Xinhua Digest, People’s Daily, People’s Daily Internals, Management Review, Macroeconomics Research, Public Finance Research, and Journal of Systems Science and Complexity. She has also authored 2 monographs and co-authored 4 other monographs.
E-mail: Chnie@ioz.ac.cn
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