经济战“疫”货币先行

Monetary Measures to Heal the Economy Amid Epidemic Outbreak
作者
        程实 钱智俊
中文关键词
         中国经济,货币政策,新型冠状病毒肺炎
英文关键词
        China’s economy, monetary policy, COVID-19
中文摘要
        2020年,随着新型冠状病毒肺炎疫情波及全国,中国经济料将承受阶段性冲击。我们认为,为避免短期冲击向长期风险演变,货币政策亟待提早发力。一方面,不同于“非典”时期,受本次疫情制约,积极财政或将遭遇规模、时滞、效力的瓶颈,亟待货币政策率先破局。另一方面,伴随通胀约束和期限利差约束的舒解,未来贷款市场报价利率(LPR)“降息”的空间有望温和扩张,将为货币政策提供发力支撑。由此,我们预判,2020年全面降准、LPR“降息”等总量性工具有望部分前移,结构性工具有望侧重疫情地区、服务业和中小企业。2020年中国经济有望实现低开高走,高质量发展的道路不会动摇。
英文摘要
        In 2020, with the spread of COVID-19 all over the country, China’s economy is predicted to encounter periodic impact. In order to avoid the short-term shocks becoming long-term risks, the related monetary policy needs to be released in advance. As restricted by the epidemic situation, the positive finance presumably encounters the bottlenecks of scale, time lag, and effectiveness, which is different from the SARS period. Meanwhile, with the release of inflation constraints and term spread constraints, the space for LPR reduction is expected to further expand, which could be the support of monetary policy regulation. Therefore, we predict that in 2020, across-the-board RRR cuts and LPR reduction are expected to be released in advance, while the structural policy tools will focus on epidemic areas, services, and SMEs. In 2020, the long-term trend for Chinese economic development will not change.
作者简介
程实
工银国际控股有限公司首席经济学家、董事、总经理、研究部主管。研究领域:全球宏观和金融市场。中国香港市场深具影响力的一线首席经济学家,同时担任中国首席经济学家论坛理事、盘古智库学术委员,以及香港中文大学、中国人民大学和浙江大学等高校金融硕士导师。2003年至今,在国内外主流财经报刊发表文章2200余篇,出版著作13部。曾获“全国金融五一劳动奖章”“金羊奖”等。带领的研究团队覆盖全球宏观、市场策略、固定收益和行业研究,是亚洲知名度和影响力俱佳的专业投行研究团队,2017—2019年连续3年上榜II(机构投资者)权威评选的“大中华地区最佳分析师团队”。
E-mail: shi.cheng@icbci.icbc.com.cn
CHENG Shi
Doctor of Philosophy in Economics. The Chief Economist, Managing Director and Head of Research Department of ICBC International. He has strong expertise in global macro and financial market research and has profound influence as a first-class chief economist in Hong Kong, China. He is also a director of China Chief Economist Forum, academic committee member with Pangoal Institution, an academic advisor with master’s degree in economics at the Chinese University of Hong Kong, Renmin University of China, and Zhejiang University. Since 2003, he has been the author of more than 2200 pieces of articles in domestic and overseas mainstream financial newspapers and magazines and 13 books. He won professional awards include the National Financial May Day Labour Medal and the “Golden Ram” prize. He leads a team of analysts and strategists which focuses on providing in-depth global macro, market strategy, fixed income, and industry research and analysis. With strong recognition and influence in investment bank research in Asia, the ICBC International has been ranked among the top firms in Institutional Investor’s All-China Research Team survey in 2017, 2018, and 2019.
E-mail: shi.cheng@icbci.icbc.com.cn

钱智俊
工银国际控股有限公司高级经济学家。研究领域:宏观经济、金融市场、公共政策。在境内外主流媒体发表文章逾200篇,在《管理世界》《国际金融研究》等国内外学术期刊发表多篇经济学论文,出版著作1部。
E-mail: andrewqzj@163.com
QIAN Zhijun Doctor of Philosophy in Economics. The Senior Economist of ICBC International. His research covers macro economy, finance market, and public policy. He has published 1 book and more than 200 pieces of research articles in domestic and overseas mainstream academic journals and financial newspapers, such as Management World and Studies of International Finance.
E-mail: andrewqzj@163.com
微信关注公众号