“一带一路”沿线文化与合作交往模式探究：基于社交媒体大数据的心理分析（已在2018年第3期出版）
Identifying Culture and Cooperative Behavior Pattern in Belt-Road Area: A Psychological Analysis of Big Data on Twitter
Identifying Culture and Cooperative Behavior Pattern in Belt-Road Area: A Psychological Analysis of Big Data on Twitter
作者
吴胜涛 周 阳 傅小兰 刘晓倩 刘天俐 朱廷劭
中文关键词
一带一路，个人主义，信任，社交媒体
英文关键词
Belt and Road, individualism, trust, social media
中文摘要
理清“一带一路”沿线国家或地区的民心特点，并找到有效的合作交往模式，是关系到国家战略实施的重大问题。但是，由于地域辽阔、民族众多，且地缘政治、经济、文化因素（如原苏联影响、欧美国家殖民、宗教传统等）异常复杂，传统的分析方法往往难以奏效。该研究结合文化心理学和大数据分析技术，利用社交媒体Twitter数据来分析“一带一路”沿线国家或地区的自我表征特点（独立性或个人主义），并建立自我表征与社会信任（普遍信任、特殊信任）的预测模型，以探究与“一带一路”沿线国家或地区合作交往的行为模式，即：自我表征是独立，还是互依；人际关系偏好是陌生人之间的普遍信任，还是熟人间的特殊信任。结果表明，“一带一路”沿线国家或地区在自我独立性这一个人主义文化指标上存在较大的变异，且主要受欧美国家殖民历史和当地宗教传统的影响；此外，针对陌生人、外国人的普遍信任与针对家人、熟人的特殊信任，可以通过个人主义指标来预测。总之，“一带一路”沿线的文化是多样的，可以通过社交媒体产生的海量语料库快速计算其个人主义指标，并以此来建立自我表征与社会信任的预测模型。该研究为分析“一带一路”战略区域的“民心”特点、探索当地合作交往的行为模式提供了新的技术路径。
英文摘要
It has been highly stressed that national characters play a critical role in regional cooperation across “Belt and Road” countries or areas. However, the traditional method is often unworkable, because of the vast territory, multiple nations, and the complexity of geopolitics, economics, and cultural traditions along “Belt and Road”. From the perspective of cultural psychology and big data analytics, the present
research was an attempt to explore cultural and cooperative patterns along “Belt and Road”, using the individualism index (independent vs. interdependent self construal) based on the Twitter dataset and the prediction model of social trust (generalized vs. particularized trust). The results show that there are big differences in individualism among “Belt and Road” countries or areas, which are mainly explained by the variation of their colonial histories and religious traditions. Furthermore, general trust (related to strangers and foreigners) and specific trust (related to family and acquaintances) are found to be significantly predicted by individualism on Twitter. In conclusion, the current findings demonstrate the cultural diversity of self construal and social trust across “Belt and Road” countries or areas, suggesting that the new approach based on social media should be concerned in exploring national characters and behavioral patters in this regional cooperation.
作者简介
吴胜涛 中国科学院心理研究所理学博士，现任厦门大学副教授。研究方向包括文化价值观、
社会情绪与公众舆论等。在国内外核心期刊上发表学术论文20余篇。
E-mail: michaelstwu@xmu. edu.cn, michaelstwu@gmail.com
WU Michael Shengtao Associate Professor at Xiamen University. He achieved Ph.D. degree from Institute of Psychology, Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS). His academic interests include cultural values, social emotions, and public opinions.
E-mail: michaelstwu@xmu.edu.cn, michaelstwu@gmail.com
周 阳 中国科学院心理研究所在读博士。研究方向为网络行为和心理分析、微博突发事件检 测及微博舆情趋势预测。
E-mail: zhouyang@psych.ac.cn
ZHOU Yang Ph.D. candidate of Institute of Psychology, CAS. Research direction covers behavior and psychology on network platform, event detection and prediction from weibo. E-mail: zhouyang@psych.ac.cn
朱廷劭 中国科学院心理研究所研究员。 1999年和2005年分别获得中国科学院计算技术研究 所和加拿大University of Alberta博士学位。研究方向涉及机器学习、汉语文语转换以及网络行 为心理研究等多个领域，已在国内外权威杂志和知名国际会议发表论文已发表学术论文60余 篇。E-mail: tszhu@psych.ac.cn
ZHU Tingshao Professor of Institute of Psychology, CAS. He achieved his Ph.D. degree at the University of Alberta, Canada in 2006. Since 2008, he started working as a Professor at the Graduate University of Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS) in Beijing, and then moved to the Institute of Psychology, CAS, to focus on cyber psychology. He has published over 60 papers in major international academic conferences and journals. The main foci of his current work are: (1) web user behavior modeling; (2) computational cyber psychology, and (3) data mining.
E-mail: tszhu@psych.ac.cn
E-mail: michaelstwu@xmu. edu.cn, michaelstwu@gmail.com
WU Michael Shengtao Associate Professor at Xiamen University. He achieved Ph.D. degree from Institute of Psychology, Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS). His academic interests include cultural values, social emotions, and public opinions.
E-mail: michaelstwu@xmu.edu.cn, michaelstwu@gmail.com
周 阳 中国科学院心理研究所在读博士。研究方向为网络行为和心理分析、微博突发事件检 测及微博舆情趋势预测。
E-mail: zhouyang@psych.ac.cn
ZHOU Yang Ph.D. candidate of Institute of Psychology, CAS. Research direction covers behavior and psychology on network platform, event detection and prediction from weibo. E-mail: zhouyang@psych.ac.cn
朱廷劭 中国科学院心理研究所研究员。 1999年和2005年分别获得中国科学院计算技术研究 所和加拿大University of Alberta博士学位。研究方向涉及机器学习、汉语文语转换以及网络行 为心理研究等多个领域，已在国内外权威杂志和知名国际会议发表论文已发表学术论文60余 篇。E-mail: tszhu@psych.ac.cn
ZHU Tingshao Professor of Institute of Psychology, CAS. He achieved his Ph.D. degree at the University of Alberta, Canada in 2006. Since 2008, he started working as a Professor at the Graduate University of Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS) in Beijing, and then moved to the Institute of Psychology, CAS, to focus on cyber psychology. He has published over 60 papers in major international academic conferences and journals. The main foci of his current work are: (1) web user behavior modeling; (2) computational cyber psychology, and (3) data mining.
E-mail: tszhu@psych.ac.cn
